Updated: 105 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
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Stationary frontal boundary draped over Southern New England will continue to focus cloud cover and light rain through early this afternoon before improving late. Brief clearing tonight, but a warm front brings another period of overcast and light rains for Sunday, trending to areas of drizzle and misty overcast for Sunday evening. Area of low pressure and cold front bring a round of rain and gusty southerly winds into early Monday, followed by much chillier weather later Monday and especially by Tuesday. Slight improvements in temperatures Wednesday before a reinforcing trough arrives later next week.
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UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
315 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Overcast with light, nuisance-type rains for most this morning, although some heavier showers and possible morning lightning strikes for the Cape and Islands.
* Decreasing clouds west to east through afternoon. Mild temps in the mid 50s to near 60, but not much warming anticipated.
Details:
What has now turned into a quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisects Southern New England early this morning, trailing from about NYC on northeast through Boston, bringing mostly light rain showers along its extent. This boundary has stalled in response to a deamplifying midlevel shortwave disturbance evident in water vapor imagery near the Cincinnati/Louisville area. This stalled frontal boundary will be the biggest forecast challenge regarding the forecast for today.
SE of this stalled boundary, in a weakly-unstable elevated- instability environment offshore of Long Island into our southern coastal waters, regional radar is showing deeper convective showers and even a few thunderstorms with radar-estimated cloud tops around 20-25kft, which have prompted some MWSs for the waters. This activity is developing in a weakly unstable airmass (MLCapes per SPC's mesoanalysis around 100-300 J/kg) in a theta-e ridge over the waters. The SPC mesoanalysis forecast off the RAP shows this narrow ribbon of instability translating eastward through the next 4 to 6 hours, which will favor additional shower and thunderstorm activity to continue to develop and move rather quickly off towards the northeast, primarily impacting the Cape and Islands and the adjacent waters.
Although severe weather is not expected, a few cloud to ground lightning strikes and perhaps graupel could result in the most intense of storms. Otherwise, due to the cloud cover and continued SWly breezes, temperatures are well above normal for a mid- November early morning with current readings in the lower to mid 50s.
As mentioned, the main forecast challenge for today revolves around when this stationary boundary and its clouds/rain finally exits stage right. The rain showers aligned along the stationary front are light. Still, continued light rains can be expected from the Hartford- Worcester-Boston corridor on south/east into late this morning until the shortwave aloft over Cincinnati vicinity gives the front its added push offshore.
Further north and west from the Merrimack Valley into the Berkshires/Pioneer Valley, showers are expected to be more intermittent with more drier periods in the morning than not. So the message for the first part of the day over the southeastern half of the CWA is that we'll see periods of light rain showers which are more of a nuisance than necessarily impactful. Obviously with the overcast, diabatic warming will be at a minimum too, so wouldn't expect temps to go much further than the mid to upper 50s through the morning, and those will most likely serve as today's calendar-day highs in most if not all areas.
By afternoon, a few more peeks of sun are anticipated, sooner in western New England and not until later in the day for eastern MA and RI.
Winds to turn light westerly with falling dewpoints..
6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY
315 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Mostly clear and chilly tonight, but with increasing clouds and slowly-warming temps before sunrise.
* Turns overcast with another round of light, nuisance rains later in the morning, becoming overcast and drizzly late in the day/early tonight. Potential for a raw Sunday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Details:
Tonight:
Sfc ridge of high pressure noses in from the NW early tonight, which will bring decreased west winds which eventually flip a light northerly to northeast drainage flow around midnight-ish. Strong nighttime cooling is likely before the pre-dawn hrs.
We then enter in a period of low-level warm advection with rather complex sea level pressure pattern for the 2nd half of the night.
Mid-level warm front, associated with a primary but occluding sfc cyclone progged near northern Indiana early Sunday morning, spreads a canopy of midlevel clouds over interior New England. Backed off on populated NBM low-chance PoPs overnight for western New England as it's simply still too dry for precip to develop. You'd be really digging deep into the toolbox (seeder-feeder mechanism?) to justify showing any PoP there and I just don't see it. Meanwhile, secondary bagginess to isobars/possible weak low near the lower mid- Atlantic region takes shape toward early morning, and this should turn winds toward the SE and allow for temps to slowly warm over eastern/southeast coastal areas from nighttime lows.
Opted for lows around freezing NW MA, to the mid/upper 30s for the rest of SNE, but temps should be gradually trending upward prior to sunrise with the SE flow developing.
Sunday:
Increasing clouds from SW to NE on Sun, as initial complex frontal system traverses NE through New England. While the primary sfc wave treks from IN/OH NE through western NY, weak secondary low pressure and its associated warm front move northward through NY/LI into Southern New England late in the morning to the mid-afternoon. The timing of this warm front/related light rains is still a little uncertain and will affect the temps. QPF amts are light, a quarter inch or less.
Present indications are that rains approach the southern coast just before noontime and spreads quickly N/NE through the rest of Southern New England during the afternoon, tapering off to an overcast/drizzly/dry-slot aloft kind of look late in the day to early Sun night.
If warm frontal rains develop sooner, say towards mid-morning as offered by more progressive solutions, then a slower rise to temps driven by thermal warm advection would be more likely.
I sided highs to the mid 40s NW MA to lower-mid 50s eastern and southeast MA and CT, which is on the cooler end of outcomes in case the light rains do come in early in the day..
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
Key Messages:
* System brings a period of rain and breezy winds Monday.
* Trending cooler early next week, with below normal temperatures.
* Gusty winds Tuesday. 30-35 mph, locally up to 40 mph.
* Isolated shower/sprinkle or flurry over the higher terrain and some ocean effect showers for Cape/Islands. Round of showers possible later Wednesday.
Details...
Monday:
A deep upper level low and trough moves across the Great Lakes toward the region Monday, eventually pushing in a cool airmass into southern New England. An increasing number of global ensembles develop a secondary area of low pressure on Monday. Overall, not expecting high impacts from the system as the majority of ensemble MSLP members from the GFS and ECMWF have minimum MSLP values >995mb.
In terms of impacts, Monday should feature showers with a greater chance for steadier rain towards the Cape and Islands. Models show a significant frontal inversion on Monday with 925mb temps climbing to 10-15C, especially across the Cape and Islands. If these temps mixed to the surface, we'd be looking at highs in the upper 60s for much of southeast Massachusetts. Unfortunately, dense clouds won't allow for much in the way of mixing and so highs will be stuck in the 50s for much of the region. Some colder air may seep far enough south to keep it in the upper 40s across the higher terrain of the interior.
Tuesday-Friday:
Strong cold air advection into Tuesday as the deep upper trough shifts eastward bringing the core of the coldest air into the region.
This will likely bring in the coldest air of the season so far with 850mb temperatures anomalies showing well below normal temperatures (-7 to -10C). This will support chilly temperatures with upper 30s for the higher terrain and 40s elsewhere. NW flow aloft with 850mb winds 40-50 kts. With CAA and ample mixing, higher winds should be able transfer down to the surface with gusts 30-35 mph possible, potentially up to 40 mph. This will make it feel even chillier, with it feeling like upper 20s across the higher terrain and 30s elsewhere. Can't rule out a few lake effect showers to survive the trek over the Berkshires which would bring sprinkles, perhaps a flurry for the higher spots. Ocean effect showers will be possible with some potentially brushing the Cape and Islands in the WNW flow.
Temperatures moderate slightly Wednesday as the core of the coldest air shifts eastward with the upper trough. It will still be on the cooler side with highs in the 40s for the higher terrain and low 50s elsewhere. Parade of shortwaves continues next Thursday bringing scattered rain and snow showers to much of New England. Can't rule out a lake effect shower earlier in the day to again make it to the east slope of the Berkshires, potentially as a flurry or very light shower. Colder airmass works back in for the end of the week with below normal temperatures returning to the forecast and chances for some ocean-effect showers and a isolated remnant lake-effect shower out west..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing.
VFR conditions for rest of the day. SCT clouds 4000-6000 ft. Winds W/WNW at 8-12 kts with a few gusts up 20 kts possible early this afternoon. Winds quickly decrease after 21z.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Winds turn NW to NE under 10 kt through 04-06z. Few mid- level decks may move through overnight.
Sunday: Moderate confidence.
VFR early AM, trending MVFR after 15z as showers arrive from the south 17-21z. IFR conditions possible in evening. E winds 8-12 kts with some gusts around 18 kts possible closer to 20 kts for Cape/Islands.
Sunday Night: Moderate Confidence.
MVFR. Models are trending toward more widespread IFR ceilings overnight although confidence is still moderate for extent of IFR. Winds E turning SE for the coastal terminals. Speeds 8-12 kts for eastern terminals and less than 10 kts for interior terminals. Gusts around 20 kts for Cape/Islands early. Winds overall decrease toward 12z.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. NW to NE winds tonight less than 10 kts. Low end VFR to MVFR ceilings develop after 15z. Showers likely arrive between 20-22z with ceilings dropping more uniformly to MVFR. Chance for IFR.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Veterans Day: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
SCAs remain in effect for most waters due to continued SW winds around 25-30 kt and offshore seas 5-8 ft. In addition, a risk for heavy showers and embedded lightning strikes will exist for mariners over the southern/southeast waters, which could prompt periodic MWSs thru mid-morning. Winds turning light W and decreasing seas into late-day today.
Sub-SCA conditions tonight into first part of Sunday but increasig SE winds to around 15-25 kt could support reissuing SCAs for Sunday afternoon into evening. Another period of light rains for Sunday as well from south to north.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
Veterans Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain.
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain.