Updated: 241 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
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A winter storm will bring accumulating snow across interior southern New England into tonight...particularly north of I-90 into the high terrain where significant snow accumulations are expected. Mainly rain is expected across eastern MA and RI...before a transition to snow occurs later tonight. All precipitation should have come to an end by daybreak Wednesday. An arctic front may be accompanied by a few snow showers or squalls Thursday followed by very cold airmass Thursday night and Friday. A coastal storm tracks well to the south Friday night and Saturday but may bring a bit of light snow to the region. Another cold front moves through Sunday followed by another surge of very cold air Sunday night and Monday. Mainly dry and cold conditions continue into Tuesday.
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THROUGH TONIGHT
Key Messages...
* Winter Storm continues tonight across interior southern New England especially north of I-90 and the high terrain
* 1-2" per hour snowfall rates north of I-90 and especially near route 2 make for hazardous travel for the evening commute
* Mid level warm layer moving northward will result in Ptype transitioning to a period of rain/ice south of I-90
* Narrow swath of sleet and freezing rain for a time into northern CT, interior southern MA and far northwest RI
* Mainly rain along the I-95 corridor into RI that should transition to a period of snow before ending toward daybreak
* Total snow accumulations of 5-10" in the highest terrain of northern MA...2-5" in the lower elevations of western/central MA...and mainly a dusting to 2" across RI and eastern MA
Details...
This afternoon into tonight...
Low pressure will be intensifying as it moves off the mid Atlantic coast and tracks just inside the Benchmark this afternoon into this evening.
Thermal profiles are initially cold enough for mainly snow northwest of the I-84/I-495 interchange inland from the coastal front into mid afternoon. However...given the lack of cold high pressure across eastern Canada and the mid level centers tracking northwest of the Benchmark will allow warmer mid-level air to move northward. Therefore...an initial burst of snow through early afternoon will change to mainly rain south of I-90 by mid-late afternoon. A few inches of snow may occur in this region before the transition to rain across southwest/south central MA perhaps into far northern CT. There remains some uncertainty how far north this mid level warm layer will reach before stalling out...but we are thinking this will mainly stay south of the route 2 corridor and possibly not make it much further north than I-90.
As the mid level low/s close off and result in strong mid level frontogenesis...we may see 1-2 per hour snowfall rates this afternoon into early evening where Ptype remains snow north of I-90 and especially towards route 2. This will result in significant impact to the evening commute north of I90 and especially near route 2 corridor.
There is a narrow area of sleet and freezing rain on the edge of the mid level warmth. We did expand the Winter Weather Advisory into northern CT/far northwest RI to account for this risk. We also are seeing this sleet and freezing rain into interior parts of southern MA near and south of I-90. Meanwhile...areas south of I-90 as well as along the I-95 should see moderate to heavy rain for the late day commute.
As the mid level low/s shift east of the region...lingering moisture with temps cooling aloft should allow for many locations to transition to snow before things wind down before daybreak Wednesday.
A coating to an inch of snow will be possible onto the I- 95 corridor with perhaps 2" into interior eastern MA. Further northwest in the lower elevations of western/central MA and even interior northeast MA...total accumulations of 2-5" seem reasonable. The highest snowfall amounts of 5-10" should be common across the northern Worcester Hills/Berks and as well as areas north of route 2.
Lastly...gusty N winds will work into the region on the backside of the system later this evening and overnight. Gusts of 20-30 mph are expected overnight with some 35-40+ mph gusts possible across the outer- Cape/Nantucket. Low temps by daybreak will be in the 20s across the interior...with lower to middle 30s along the I-95 corridor and middle to upper 30s near the Cape and Islands.
So not expecting many issues with roads along and southeast of I-95 corridor...but northwest of I-95 untreated roads will be slippery for the Wed am commute despite the precipitation having ended..
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Key Messages...
* Mostly sunny/quiet weather Wed with highs ranging from the middle 30s in the high terrain to the upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere
* Dry and chilly Wed night with lows in the upper teens and 20s
Details...
Wednesday...
A ridge of high pressure briefly builds to our southwest on Wednesday. This will result in plenty of sunshine with winds becoming rather light by later in the morning and afternoon. Temperatures still below normal for early December...but not bad with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Highs Wednesday should range from the middle 30s in the high terrain and the upper 30s to the lower 40s elsewhere.
Also...we did opt to issue a Coastal Flood Statement for the high astro tide Wednesday morning along the eastern MA coast.
Any impacts should be very minor...but with building seas offshore and a gusty N- NW winds some very minor coastal flooding/splash over will be possible during the time of high tide with the best chance south of Boston.
Wednesday night...
Dry and chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday night out ahead of an arctic cold front. Low temperatures should mainly be in the upper teens and 20s..
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
Key Messages:
* Scattered snow showers and localized squalls possible Thu
* Arctic airmass moves into SNE Thu night-Fri with very cold temps
* Coastal storm to the south may bring some light wintry precip Fri night and Sat but bulk of precip expected to remain to the south. Minimal impacts expected
* Another cold front will deliver a very cold airmass Sun night-Mon
Overview...
Overall -AO/-NAO pattern will persist through the extended period keeping mean trough across the eastern CONUS with TPV over eastern Canada. This will keep temps well below normal with a few surges of arctic air. Overall, not looking at any significant precip events through the period with northern stream dominant pattern and minimal southern stream interaction.
Details...
An arctic front crosses the region Thu afternoon and evening and will likely be accompanied by scattered snow showers.
The snow squall parameter is favorable Thu afternoon, especially across northern MA as the front is moving so potential exists for a few localized snow squalls. After the front moves through, gusty NW winds during the afternoon and evening will usher in much colder air with sharply falling temps. Winds diminish overnight as high pres builds over New Eng with cold advection transitioning to radiational cooling for the second half of the night. 925 mb temps bottom out around -14 to -16C Thu night and recover to -8 to -10C on Fri. Lows will drop into the single numbers interior and teens in the coastal plain. High pres in control Fri with dry and cold weather and highs mostly in the 20s, except lower 30s near the south coast.
Fast moving low amplitude shortwave moving off the mid Atlc coast with coastal low tracking well to the south Fri night into Sat.
Best moisture and bulk of QPF remains to the south but can't rule out a bit of light snow Fri night, especially south of the MA Pike, then some light rain/snow showers possible during Sat. Ensemble guidance indicates potential for a very light QPF event with minor accum less than an inch possible with minimal impacts expected.
Another cold front will be moving through Sun with another surge of arctic air Sun night into Mon with lows down into the single numbers and teens again and highs Mon in the 20s to lower 30s. Mainly dry weather Sun-Mon. Temps moderate some next Tue and it still looks dry but confidence in sensible weather is low given considerable spread in the guidance with timing, amplitude and location of approaching shortwaves..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z update...
Today...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR ceilings drop to IFR-LIFR as precip overspreads the region this afternoon, 18-21z. Ptype rain for coastal terminals. SN to start for BDL,BAF, BED, and ORH, with chance for RA to mix in the afternoon 19z-21z. Lower confidence for precipitation type due to uncertainty in location of rain-snow line. E-NE wind 5-15 kt. Minor accumulations for BDL, BAF, BED, and ORH. 2-6" possible depending on where RA- SN line positions. Snowfall rates less than 0.5"/hour for terminals.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Widespread IFR-LIFR improving to VFR late from west to east after 06Z. Light SN for interior terminals in evening. Change over to a period of light RA/SN or light SN possible along the I-95 corridor, including BOS and PVD for a short period. Timing of change over is lower confidence, but would be after 03Z. Minor accum (Trace-0.5") possible at BOS. NE wind becoming N-NNW with gusts to 25 kt developing, with 30-40 kt gusts possible for Cape/Islands.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts (up to 25 kts for Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Changeover to -RASN or -SN possible Tuesday night. Exact timing lower confidence, more likely between 03-07z.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Lower confidence in timing of ptype changes.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA, slight chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
* Gale warnings tonight across our eastern waters
Rapidly intensifying low pressure system passes east of the Benchmark this evening. This increase in pressure gradient results in N wind gusts increasing to between 30 and 40 knots. Strongest of those winds will be across our eastern waters where Gale Warnings will continue. Across our western waters...strong small craft advisories remain posted but a few brief gusts to 35 knots possible.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...
The low pressure system will already be east of the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will then temporarily build to our southwest. This will allow winds to diminish Wed and while seas will slowly drop off too...they will remain elevated enough that small craft headlines will be needed into early Wed evening. Winds/seas may both briefly drop below small craft thresholds later Wed night...but SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots will re-develop toward daybreak Thu ahead of our next cold front.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.