Updated: 150 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025
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Approaching low pressure allows mainly rain to overspread the region from west to east this evening with any snow confined to the highest terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. A cold front crosses the region later tonight...bringing mainly dry but windy and much colder weather Thursday into Thursday night. Wind chills Thursday night to range between 5 below zero and up to 10 above zero. Blustery and cold temperatures continue into Friday. Still can't rule out wintry weather Saturday night into Sunday, but the chances have decreased. Another shot of modified Arctic air returns for Monday to go along with gusty northwest winds. Temperatures start to modify on Tuesday, heralding a possible pattern change toward milder temperatures starting around the middle of next week.
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THROUGH TONIGHT
Key Messages
* Brief period of rain/snow late this afternoon/evening into the midnight hours
* Skies clear overnight with blustery west/northwest winds developing
An area of surface-low pressure passes north of southern New England tonight. This frontal wave will bring a period of rainfall to southern New England later this afternoon and into the midnight hours. Snow more likely for the higher terrain, particularly the east slopes of The Berkshires, where 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall by the time all is said and done. Other elevated areas in central MA may see a dusting of snow as well, but overall a low-impact weather event. Rain accumulations elsewhere generally around a quarter of an inch or less. As a cold front associated with the surface low pushes through the region after midnight, west/northwest winds behind the front will usher a cooler/drier air mass into the region.
Skies clear from west to east with temperatures dropping to the mid to upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Sustained winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by sunrise..
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
Key Messages
* Wind Advisory in effect for interior high elevations and coastal areas
* West/northwest wind gusts up to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night
* Cold and blustery conditions will support single digit wind chill temperatures Thursday night
Thursday and Thursday Night
A strong low-level jet develops over southern New England tomorrow in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A west/northwest CAA regime will be in place for roughly a 24 hour period and will support a period of strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. Ensembles support an average of 35 knot winds in the PBL (roughly surface to 850 hPa) with winds peaking around 50 knots at the top of the PBL tomorrow afternoon.
These values then increase to 45-60 knots tomorrow night. Bufkit soundings support 40+ knot wind gusts at coastal locations and over the higher terrain between tomorrow morning and tomorrow night. Elsewhere, wind gusts will be flirting with advisory criteria with peak gusts in the 35-40 knot range, but confidence not high enough at this time to include the other forecast zones in the advisory. If confidence increases, the rest of southern New England may be included in the advisory.
In addition to the strong winds, we'll see a significant drop in temperatures from Wednesday-Thursday. High temps peak in the 30s on Thursday, followed by temps bottoming out in the teens by Friday morning. The strong west/northwest winds will support wind chill values in the single digits for much of the region on Friday morning..
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
Key Messages:
* Chilly and still rather windy Fri, although winds/gusts ease through the day.
* Still can't rule out possible accumulating wintry weather Sat night into Sun, but the chances have decreased.
* Windy and cold Monday, modifying some on Tue.
* Possible warm-up by midweek?
Details:
Friday:
Latest guidance has slowed down the cessation of winds and wind gusts until later into the day on Fri. Lingering effects from the period of gusty NW winds continue into the morning hours, as the cold start and NW winds gusting around 25-40 mph will lead to low wind chills in the single digits above zero (single digits below zero in the higher terrain). Gradual warming and a slow but steady easing of NW winds by afternoon should allow for highs in the mid 20s to the freezing mark for locations north and west of I-95, and mid 30s for the south coast, Cape and Islands.
Clear skies and easing west winds early Fri night but cloud cover begins to increase late as warm advection pattern develops, with lows around the mid teens to low 20s.
The Weekend:
Still looking like a mostly cloudy day for Sat, and other than a spot temperature-dependent rain or snow shower, the day is largely a cloudy but dry one. Highs in the 30s.
We're also still monitoring possible storminess in the Sat night to Sun timeframe, as closed low over the Canadian Prairies interacts with fast-moving shortwave coming off the northern Rockies. Forecast models continue to struggle with the interaction and phasing between those two pieces of energy and that unfortunately continues; the trend in recent ECMWF/EPS solutions as well as the GFS has been toward an offshore solution with phasing occuring too late for much of any impact to Southern New England - perhaps some snow accumulation over Cape Cod on an inverted trough as the low pulls further away.
The GFS has consistently shown this type of outcome. The Canadian on the other hand is holding onto an interior storm track which could bring an snow or snow to wintry mix/rain solution. That disparity in outcomes due to the varied interactions between the two streams of energy across the models illustrates there's still quite a bit of uncertainty. It's still too early to discount some accumulating wintry weather at this point but the trend has been too far offshore for much impact. Kept PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range, highest further south, for snow or snow/rain. Those will need further adjusting once there's more of a coherent and consistent signal across the guidance.
Monday and Tuesday:
High pressure begins to build into the mid-Atlantic region Mon and Tue.
Another reinforcing shot of very cold temperatures looks likely for us on Mon with highs in the 20s with gusty northwest winds to go along with it. WNW wind gusts ease into Mon night and Tue, as high pressure settles over the coastal mid-Atlantic by Tue. While still dry with highs in the 30-35 degree range for Tue, with high pressure still to our south it could herald a more substantial warm-up as we move into the middle of next week. .
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...High Confidence
VFR conditions gradually deteriorate to MVFR from west to east as -RA/-SN overspreads southern New England. South/southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots.
Tonight...High Confidence
-RA/-SN and MVFR ceilings from roughly 00-06Z. -SN mostly confined to the elevated areas, so most likely at BAF/ORH. Minimal accumulations. A cold front pushes showers/MVFR ceilings out of the area after 06Z and is followed by gusty west/northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts approaching 25 knots by 12Z.
Tomorrow...High Confidence
VFR. Strong west/northwest winds from 15 to 25 knots with some gusts up to 40 knots possible. Strongest winds expected near the coast, Cape, Islands, and high terrain.
Tomorrow Night...High COnfidence
VFR. Gusty west/northwest winds continue with sustained 15 to 25 and gusts up to 40 knots. Strong wind should be on the downswing by Friday morning, but may remain in the 20-30 knot range through Friday afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Friday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Saturday: Breezy.
Saturday Night: Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SN.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Tomorrow Night ...High confidence.
Gale warning today for strong southwest LLJ ahead of cold front. SW wind gusts up to 35 knots. Cold front crosses the region later tonight followed by excellent mixing in the CAA Thu. Gale force wind gusts re-develop...but this time from a westerly direction. Gales posted for all waters.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of snow.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow.