Updated: 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
Links: Graphical | Weather | AFD | Snow | About
Much colder air works into the region today and tonight on westerly wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Wind chills will drop to between 5 below and 10 above tonight. Cold and blustery conditions continue Friday...but a ridge of high pressure allows winds to diminish Friday night and Saturday despite the continuation of chilly temperatures. A period of snow is possible late Saturday night into Sunday...but that remains uncertain and depends if low pressure tracks far enough north. Regardless...another shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday with wind chills dropping to between 5 below and 10 above. A pattern change is expected by the middle of next week resulting in significantly milder temperatures.
12 Hour
24 Hour
36 Hour
48 Hour
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
THROUGH TONIGHT
Key Messages
* Wind Advisory expanded to include the rest of our county warning area
* Steep pressure gradient and strong low level jet brings widespread 35-50 mph gusts
* Cold and blustery conditions will support single digit wind chill temperatures Thursday night
Strong CAA regime will bring a period of strong, and even locally damaging wind gusts today and tonight. Guidance continues to show average winds of 35 knots in a well- mixed PBL tomorrow. Wind speeds at the top of the PBL may even increase to as high as 50-55 mph later today. BUFKIT soundings have maximum mixed layer heights between 4-6 kft and 1000-850mb lapse rates >9C/km. In short, all ingredients are there for a strong wind event with peak gusts in the 35-40 knot range for much of Southern New England.
As a result, opted to expand the wind advisory for all locations through Friday morning.
In addition to the strong winds, we'll see a significantly colder temperatures Thursday. High temps peak in the 30s around midnight Thursday then bottom out in the middle to lower teens Friday morning. Low temperatures combined with strong west/northwest winds will result in wind chill readings falling to the the single digits Friday morning for much of the region except for the Cape and Islands where readings will be closer to the lower teens..
FRIDAY
Wind advisory will remain in effect through 15z Friday as the strongest part of the LLJ moves offshore. Expecting a frigid start to the day with NW winds around 20-40 mph leading to wind chills in the single digits above and below zero with the coldest values in the higher terrain. Slow improvements in wind chills through the day with gradually warming temperatures. ..
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Key Messages...
* Dry & chilly Fri night into Sat with lows mainly in the teens and highs generally in the 30s...but parts of RI/SE MA may approach 40
* A period of snow possible late Sat night-Sun if low pressure tracks far enough north...but that still remains uncertain
* Another shot of arctic air follows later Sun/Sun night with windy conditions and high temps Mon only reaching the 20s
* Still cold Mon night-Tue with highs in the upper 20s-middle 30s with perhaps a few brief snow showers
* Pattern change with a warming trend expected Wed and especially Thu when highs may reach well into the 40s to near 50
Details...
Friday night and Saturday...
A weak ridge of high pressure to our south will take control of our weather.
The result will be dry weather with relatively light winds. Low temperatures will mainly be in the teens Fri night with highs on Sat generally in the 30s...but some places across RI/SE MA may approach 40.
Saturday night and Sunday...
There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty later Sat night and Sun depending on the track of a fast moving low pressure system. If the system tracks far enough we will see a period of snow...but it may stay far enough south where most if not all our region remains dry. Regardless...this does not look like a big event but certainly the risk for a few inches of snow if this system ends up tracking far enough north.
The guidance has been struggling with this over the past couple of days.
Strong northern stream shortwave energy will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes. Timing and amplitude of this shortwave will impact how far north low pressure emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast will track. Currently...most of the guidance has just a glancing blow mainly south of I-90 and the greatest risk near the south coast. However...certainly would not take much of a bump northward to bring the risk for a few inches of snow to much of southern New England. This scenario is shown by the 00z NAM as well as some of the individual GEFS/EPS/CMC ensembles. So in a nutshell...the northern extent of this snow shield remains uncertain. We probably need a few more model runs to sort this out. Regardless of what happens...this system will be progressive so not expecting a major event.
Sunday night into Monday...
Regardless of what happens with the low pressure system Sat night into Sun...a cold front will usher in another short of arctic air Sun night into Mon.
Low temps Sun night should bottom out mainly in the high single digits and teens with highs on Mon mainly in the 20s. Windy conditions will result in wind chills dropping into the 5 below to 10 above range late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Monday night and Tuesday...
Still cold Mon night and Tue but with diminishing wind. Some of the guidance indicates a shortwave that may result in a few snow showers. Otherwise...Lows Monday night mainly in the teens with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to the middle 30s.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Appears most of the long range guidance is an agreement in a pattern change. A developing -PNA allows more of a zonal flow of Pacific air to work across the U.S. Highs probably reach into the 40s across much of the region Wed with perhaps some areas reaching 50 by Thu.
So this will be significantly milder weather than what we have been experiencing so far in December..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence
VFR. Strong west/northwest winds from 15 to 25 knots with some gusts up to 40 knots possible. Strongest winds expected near the coast, Cape, Islands, and high terrain.
Tonight...High Confidence
VFR. Gusty west/northwest winds continue with sustained 15 to 25 and gusts up to 40 knots. Strong wind should be on the downswing by Friday morning, but may remain in the 20-30 knot range through Friday afternoon.
Friday...High Confidence
VFR. Initially gusty west winds becoming northwest by the afternoon. Sustained between 10 and 15 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today Through Friday...High confidence.
Strong CAA brings westerly gales for all the waters starting this morning and continuing through Friday. Near storm force westerlies tonight into Friday morning. Gales gradually relax after 18z Friday afternoon.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Snow likely, chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.