Updated: 247 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
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High pressure across eastern Canada will result in dry and cool weather this weekend. A few showers are possible mainly near the coast early next week. A more significant storm system with a period of gusty winds and widespread rain are possible by late in the week.
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UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING
Key Messages:
* Chilly night ahead with many falling into the 30s, while the coast remains slightly warmer... near 40F.
Mainly uneventful weather for the rest of today and the overnight as high pressure remains in control. A mid-level shortwave races across the region late this evening into early Sunday morning, adding a few more clouds to the overnight sky, mainly mid-level clouds. These exit from west to east during the night, with clouds hanging on to eastern Massachusetts the longest, thus less cooling here.
Tonight's low temperatures are generally in the 30s with the coast near 40F. The coldest areas where we clear out and radiate drop to around 30F. .
6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
Key Messages:
* Nearly a rinse and repeat forecast, rouge showers possibles for the eastern coast of Massachusetts Sunday into Sunday night, but a washout isn't expected.
* Chilly night ahead, most locations on either side of freezing, but will be somewhat warmer at the immediate coast. Rinse and repeat. An area of high pressure in eastern Canada remains in control and robust mid-level shortwave with a cold pool arrives by tomorrow afternoon. Low-level clouds and high temperatures in the upper-40s across the interior high terrain and mid-50s at the coast.
925mb winds are north-northwest across the eastern waters Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, and with low-level lapse rates 8-10C/km cannot rule out ocean effect showers from the tip of Cape Ann and areas south to Cape Cod and the islands.
By no means a washout, but a rouge showers are possible.
Turning colder overnight with light northerly wind and waning cloud cover as we lose the little diurnal heating of the day. Nighttime lows drop onto either side of 30F, with coastal areas near 40F. .
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
Key Messages...
* Unsettled and dreary weather through mid week due to persistent NE flow
* Chance for a stronger storm system late week, but uncertainty remains high
Upper-level flow this week becomes very stagnant as an omega blocking pattern sets up with a ridge over the Great Lakes and a trough over the northeast. Surface flow turns NNE on Monday and stays there through late week until the blocking pattern finally breaks. While Monday through Wednesday likely wont be a washout, the NE flow will result in dreary conditions with light drizzle and perhaps some ocean-effect showers. Temperatures through midweek will struggle to top the low 50s, with overnight lows staying in the upper 30s to low 40s.
The blocking patterns begin to break up as the upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes weakens with an upper-level trough exiting the northern Great Plains. The stalled trough over the north east then begins to retrograde into the approaching wave, leading to a rather complex and uncertain upper-level setup heading into the end of the week. Ensemble cluster analysis is somewhat split on how exactly this trough resolves: 30% of the members cut it off over the southern plains, 50% progress it into the northeast, while the last 20% were far enough outliers to not fall into either of the previous two solutions. Deterministic guidance favors the more progressive solution, bringing the trough into the region sometime between Thursday and Friday.
Given the strength of the trough and associated surface low, this system has the potential to bring rain and wind impacts to the region late in the week, but given the high uncertainty, will not attempt to break it down further at this point..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Through 00z... High confidence.
Dry. Low-end SCT to BKN VFR ceilings. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots.
Tonight... High confidence.
Dry and VFR. Light northwest wind, becoming calm.
Sunday and Sunday Night... High confidence.
Mostly dry, low-end VFR ceilings. Low chance of a shower across the eastern coast of Massachusetts, Cape, and Island. Northwest wind 8 to 12 knots during the daylight hours, becoming north-northwest overnight with speeds less than 5 knots, coastal sites 5 to 8 knots.
KBOS Terminal... High confidence.
KBDL Terminal... High confidence.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
This Afternoon through Sunday Night... High confidence.
High pressure across eastern Canada will result in north-northwest winds less than 15 knots. Winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds this weekend.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers likely.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely.