Updated: 610 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
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A warm front brings a period of steady rain early this morning followed by mild temperatures. Low pressure passing well to the north swings a strong cold front through our region late tonight. Colder and windier conditions follow behind this front Thursday through Saturday. Milder temperatures Sunday, before another frontal boundary approaches from the west early next week.
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THROUGH TONIGHT
Key Messages...
* Widespread showers end early but scattered rain showers continue through the day.
* Well above average temperatures in the upper 50s near 60.
The surface warm front is progressing north early this morning and should be north of SNE by 12Z/7am. As such, while we'll see the widespread showers diminish this morning, lingering low and mid level moisture will keep us socked in with clouds and synoptic forcing means continued scattered showers through the day for some. Rain will be focused over the south coast where divergence aloft from the left exit region of an upper jet and low level convergence associated with a marginal LLJ will keep showers ongoing through much of the day. This is all brought to an end tonight as a strong cold front pushes through the region overnight taking the moisture with it.
We can expect to wake up to mostly clear skies by Thanksgiving morning..
THURSDAY
Key Messages...
* Colder and blustery on Thanksgiving.
The holiday kicks off with plenty of sun, but don't let it fool you: it will be much colder than Wednesday; 850 mb temps drop from +9C on Wed to -6C on Thu so we'll start off the day 15 to 20 degrees colder than 24 hours prior. Highs will struggle to get out of the mid 40s. This cold advection also means a well mixed boundary layer leading to a blustery day with winds gusting 25-35 mph..
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
Key Messages...
* Windy and cold Friday into Saturday.
* Becoming unsettled Sunday night into Monday with a quick hitting system.
A generally benign, quiet, and cold holiday weekend follows as a much colder airmass settles overhead thanks to a sprawling mid level trough settling over the east coast. 850 mb temps bottom out around - 10C on Saturday before warm advection provides a moderating force for the second half of the weekend ahead of our next storm system. We'll see highs only in the 30s and low 40s Fri/Sat, rising back into the upper 40s/50s Sun into next week.
Precipitation-wise the only thing to speak of before Sunday night is the possibility for some light snow accumulations in wester/central MA/CT on Friday thanks to lake effect showers streaming across NY.
Beyond that, guidance is in fairly good agreement that another trough of low pressure passes north of the region Sunday night into Monday. This looks to be a quick hit of precipitation with a mild/rainy low track for SNE..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z update...
Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing
Widespread RA comes to an end by 12Z. Additional showers possible for much of the day especially over southeast MA and RI. Other terminals stay dry, especially after 18Z. IFR more than likely persists through the day, with some improvements to VFR/MVFR ceilings possible by 15-17Z but confidence is low in improvement.
Tonight...High Confidence
Cold front crosses the region tonight and clears skies from west to east between 03Z and 09Z. Winds shift to the west from 10 to 15 knots with some 25 knot gusts possible near the coast.
Thanksgiving...High Confidence.
VFR. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Biggest area of uncertainty is when/if cigs rise above IFR today; most likely remaining low MVFR if we do see some marginal improvement after 16z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thanksgiving... High confidence.
* Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters.
* Gale Watch for Thursday through early Saturday across all waters.
A low pressure moves over the coastal waters early this morning with a period of steady rain. Increasing dewpoints may result in localized dense fog development over the cooler ocean waters. Showers and fog dissipate tonight into Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters with a much cooler/drier air mass.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.