Updated: 342 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
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A warm front will bring showers this morning followed by windy and milder conditions this afternoon. A cold front will push southward across the region tonight and may lead to a few showers, especially south of the Mass Pike which may linger along the south coast early Friday. High pressure brings drier and mild conditions Friday. Turning much cooler Saturday with showers returning as a frontal system approaches, then milder Sunday with continued unsettled conditions. Drying out Monday as the frontal system exits the region followed by cooler than normal temperatures overspreading the area much of next week.
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UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING
Key Messages:
* Showers this morning with brief downpours possible
* Windy and milder this afternoon. A few gusts to 40 mph possible
Showers assocd with forcing ahead of the warm front moving across northern and eastern MA early this morning. Will see a temporary lull before additional showers develop. Mid level shortwave crosses the region this morning. Deep moisture plume combined with marginal elevated instability will result in numerous showers redeveloping and moving across SNE this morning, initially across the interior before shifting to the south coast late morning and early afternoon. The instability aloft has produced some lightning to the NW so can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder and a few showers may contain brief downpours given PWATs approaching 1.5".
We should see somewhat of a drying trend this afternoon with decreasing coverage of showers as the shortwave exits and some drying moves in aloft. The warm front will be lifting northward across the region by afternoon with increasing SW flow bringing milder air northward into SNE as 925 mb temps increase to 14-16C. Normally this would support temps well into the 70s but cloud cover and shallow mixed layer will limit how warm it gets. We should see temps rise into the 60s away from the south coast, with the chance of a few locations in the CT valley could reach 70+. 75th percentile of NBM has highs near 70 in the CT valley and interior NE MA but confidence is low due to cloud cover. Expect cooler 50s along the immediate south coast.
It will become windy later this morning and afternoon as warm sector overspreads the region.
We have a 55-65 kt low level jet across eastern half SNE. Inversion will limit how strong gusts will get, but warming temps this afternoon will help to weaken the inversion and support gusts to 30-40 mph..
6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY
Key Messages:
* A few showers tonight, especially south of MA Pike
* Increasing sunshine from north to south Fri with above normal temps
Northern stream shortwave moving across eastern Canada will push a cold front southward into SNE tonight and can't rule out a few spot showers. There is an increase in elevated instability from the SW which moves into the region in the evening which may result in a few convective showers near the south coast this evening. The instability moves to the south overnight, but developing deeper moisture axis sets up near the south coast ahead of the front with PWATs near 1.5", so may see a few additional showers develop near the south coast late tonight into early Friday. Where these showers set up is uncertain and could end further north or south.
Good drying trend for Friday as much drier air moves southward across the region with PWATs falling to 0.25-0.50". There is a low risk a few showers could linger near the south coast early Fri, otherwise clouds will give way to increasing sunshine from N to S. It may take until the afternoon for sunshine to develop near the south coast. It will be a mild day with highs in the 60s and modest NW breezes 10-20 mph. .
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Long Term
Key Messages
* Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing warmth and shower chances Saturday night into Sunday
* Unsettled early next week with seasonable temperatures
Saturday through Sunday night.
High pressure builds north and east of southern New England Friday night into Saturday. This will allow a backdoor cold front to advect cooler air into the region with 925 hPa temps dipping near the freezing mark by Saturday morning. This will support a cool/raw day with highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s for much of southern New England. Saturday will as mark the beginning of a wet/unsettled period for the forecast area that will carry into next week. As the aforementioned area of high pressure continues to shift east, return flow from the south will support WAA driven showers over southern New England likely beginning Saturday afternoon.
Expect precipitation to persist through Sunday as the associated low- pressure system traverses over The Northeast Saturday night through Sunday evening.
As warm sector air lifts over the region on Sunday, 925 hPa temps rise dramatically to the 15 to 20C range. So while Sunday is expected to be wet/rainy, it will also be on the warm/humid side with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Ensemble mean precipitation forecasts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night are ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch across southern New England. Some of this precip may come in the form of convective showers Sunday night as the associated cold front drives the warm sector air out of the region. Model derived CAPE values are unimpressive at this time, but with ensemble mean SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg, a few showers could have a rumble of thunder, particularly along the south coast.
Monday through Wednesday
Showers associated with a passing cold front exit off the east coast early Monday. Despite the dry/northwest flow that will follow, unsettled weather looks to continue Monday and Tuesday as a second pulse of short-wave energy digs east over The Midwest toward southern New England. Moisture will be lacking, so while we aren't anticipating any substantial precipitation from this short-wave, we do expect more clouds than sun with some sporadic showers. Temperatures looks to be seasonable with ensemble means supporting highs/lows in the upper 40s to 50s and mid to upper 30s respectively Monday and Tuesday. Details become vague as we reach the middle of next week, but there is strong support from ensembles for below normal temperatures as a broad upper-level trough is expected to bring a surge of cooler air to the Northeast for the middle of next week..
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z update
Through 12Z...High Confidence
Ceilings continue to fall to MVFR/IFR by 12Z with -SHRA and steady south/southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots.
Today...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Areas of LIFR fog developing along the south coast mid-late afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
IFR/MVFR improving to VFR from NW to SE with passage of a cold front. LIFR fog near the south coast improving overnight.
Friday... High Confidence
VFR. West/northwest winds 10-20 kt.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence.
BDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through tonight...High confidence.
Gusty SW winds today with low level jet over the waters. Gusts to 25- 35 kt with strongest gusts over nearshore waters. A few marginal gale force gusts possible. Winds diminish tonight and shift to NW late tonight. Seas build to 7-9 ft over the outer waters. Occasional showers with areas of dense fog developing this afternoon into this evening with poor vsbys, improving late tonight.
Friday...High confidence.
W-NW winds 10-20 kt with subsiding seas. Scattered showers possible over southern waters early.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.