Updated: 557 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
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Overcast with isolated sprinkles or flurries through mid evening as weak low pressure moves through northern New England, with decreasing clouds overnight. Blustery but dry weather for Monday, with increasing clouds for Monday evening. A warm front will bring a period of rain from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, mild with a continued chance of showers Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and blustery conditions follow behind the front for Thanksgiving Day, then windy and cold weather for next Friday and Saturday. More seasonable Sunday as high pressure moves offshore.
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THROUGH MONDAY
100 PM Update:
Key Messages:
* Overcast with a flurry or sprinkle possible through mid-evening but nothing worse. Decreasing cloudiness after midnight except over the Cape and Islands.
Details:
Midlevel cloud canopy has overspread Southern New England, in association with a fast-moving Clipper low centered over the St. Lawrence River Valley in NW NY. Pretty favorable ascent with New England being located in the poleward exit region of a midlevel jetstreak - this jetstreak seen in WV imagery as the enhanced dryslot seen racing thru eastern PA. However much of the returns seen on regional radar mosaic have not amounted to much at all as drier air below cloud base appears to be winning out. It also looks like sustained precip will be tougher to come by in Southern New England given the drier punch of air aloft and better (deeper) saturation confined to interior northern New England.
Wouldn't rule out a sprinkle or flurry at worst through early to mid evening as low pressure moves through but that will likely be the worst of it with considerable cloud cover to be the rule.
Decreasing cloud cover after midnight in most areas, though there may be leftover ocean-enhanced cloudiness near the Cape and Islands as winds become NWly with some marginal ocean-enhanced instability as 925-850 mb thermal trough moves overhead. Early cloud cover and then NW winds around 5-10 mph increasing toward the pre-dawn hrs should lead to lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, with mid 30s Cape and Islands..
MONDAY NIGHT
100 PM Update:
Key Messages:
* Blustery with dry weather Monday.
* Early lows Mon night, but temps rise before daybreak with increasing clouds.
Details:
Mostly clear with dry weather Mon, but will also see some blustery northwest winds. More shallow mixing (mixing depths to around 900 mb per BUFKIT profiles) should keep gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range from mid-morning to early afternoon before subsiding by mid- afternoon to sundown. Highs should top out in the 40s, with low 40s terrain and mid/upper 40s lower elevations, coastal plain and the cities.
Initial WNW winds then slacken early Mon night as sfc ridge of high pressure moves offshore. Continued easterly translation of the high to permit a moderately-strong warm advection regime to develop for the second half of the night, with increasing SW winds 5-10 mph and as well as an increasing coverage of mid to high clouds.
This should allow for early lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, then rise into the 30s toward daybreak..
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Key Messages:
* A period of widespread rain late Tue into Tue evening, tapering off late Tue night
* Rather mild with a chance of showers Wed into Wed evening
* Cooler and blustery Thursday, then windy and cold Fri & Sat.
* Seasonably cool Sunday with a low risk of showers
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Fast moving deamplifying shortwave lifts NE from the Gt Lakes Tue passing to the north Tue night. High pres just offshore Tue will provide dry weather through the morning with temps a bit above normal as SW flow becomes established. Then increasing moisture and lift ahead of a warm front will result in rain quickly overspreading the region from W to E late Tue into Tue evening. Despite deamplifying shortwave a 40-50 kt low level jet will advect PWATs around an inch into SNE and enhance low level convergence, with favorable right entrance region of upper jet so expect a period of widespread rain Tue evening.
It's a quick moving system with a dry slot moving into the region 06-12z so expect steady rain to end before daybreak Wed, but could see rainfall 0.25-0.50".
Next robust shortwave will be lifting to the north Wed evening with fairly strong cold front sweeping through the region 00-06z Thu. There will be some showers around Wed as PWATs remain elevated but not a washout. Best chance for a period of showers will likely be late in the day and especially during the evening as the front moves through. It will be rather mild Wed as temps will be rising into the 50s by daybreak, and 925 mb temps up to 10-12C. Probably not much sunshine but if we do get a little sun, potential for highs to reach into the lower 60s Wed.
Wednesday night into Sunday...
After frontal passage, expect clearing skies and it will become blustery and turning sharply cooler late Wed night into Thu as strong cold advection develops.
Temps will fall from the 50s Wed evening into the 30s and low 40s by daybreak Thu with only minor recovery during the day Thu. Mostly dry Thu but can't rule out a few flurries in western MA as a shortwave and colder temps aloft approaches from the west. Then windy and cold Fri into Sat with temps several degrees below normal. Fri will be the windier day as GFS soundings support gusts over 40 mph which is supported by increasing NBM probs of 40+ mph, then less wind Sat as gradient relaxes somewhat. There will be a risk of a few flurries or snow showers Fri as upper trough axis and increased moisture moves through, with more sunshine on Sat. Still looks mostly dry and seasonably cool Sunday but moisture may be returning in developing warm advection pattern as high pres moves offshore.
Global ensembles do show an increase in PoPs for measurable rainfall..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR with pockets of MVFR in areas of rain. Radar trends have been downward over the last hour, so opted to end VCSH for most TAF sites except the Cape and Islands. Light SW winds turn light NW after 02z.
Monday: High confidence.
VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kt, gusts to low 20s kt range but will begin to decrease late in the day.
Monday Night: High confidence.
VFR, increasing covg of mid/high clouds after 06z. WNW/W winds 5-10 kt early continue to decrease but then shift to SW and increase to 5-10 kt after 06z.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday Night: High confidence.
SW to W winds and seas remain below SCA criterion through the rest of the afternoon into early tonight. Outside chance at a sprinkle or flurry early tonight but not enough to reduce visibility.
Added small craft advisories for the southern waters starting after midnight into the first part of Monday as NW winds develop overnight and become gusty in the 25-30 kt range. Seas increase into the 3-6 ft range, higher on the southern outer waters Mon. Winds and seas then begin to decrease early Mon night, with winds becoming southerly around 10-15 kt by Tue daybreak.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas.