Updated: 657 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
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Mainly dry and cooler weather outside of a brief spot shower or two are on tap for today and Friday. Dry and even cooler temperatures arrive this weekend as high pressure noses down from Quebec. Onshore flow may result in some low clouds and a few showers by early next week with the potential for a stronger coastal storm by mid-late in the week.
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UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
Key Messages...
* Partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies today with nothing more than a brief spot shower or two...Highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s
Details...
Closed upper level low across Quebec will result in a deep trough over the northeast. Cyclonic flow coupled with shortwave energy/cold pool aloft will allow for a fair amount of strato-cu to develop especially during the afternoon hours. So while there will be peeks of sunshine...also expect periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies. Dry weather will dominate given the lack of low level support...but the cold pool aloft may trigger a few brief spot showers especially during the afternoon hours. High temps will generally reach the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Bufkit soundings also support enough mixing to generate southwest wind gusts of 20-25 mph by afternoon..
6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY
Key Messages...
* Variable clouds tonight...Lows in the upper 30s to the middle 40s
* Considerable clouds again on Fri with nothing more than a spot shower or two...Highs in the upper 50s to near 60
Details...
Tonight...
Vigorous shortwave energy will remain across our region given the deep northeast trough. This should result in varying amounts of clouds at times. Generally dry weather is expected tonight...but can not rule out a brief spot shower. Low temps tonight will mainly be in the upper 30s to the middle 40s.
Friday...
The deep upper trough and cold pool aloft remain in control of our weather for Fri. This should result in another day of considerable cloudiness...but with peeks of sunshine at times too.
A spot shower or two will be possible especially during the afternoon hours...but again with the lack of low level support the majority of the day will feature dry weather. High temps a tad lower than today...generally in the upper 50s to near 60. Winds will be considerably lighter though than today..
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Key Messages...
* Dry & cool Sat/Sun...Lows upper 20s & 30s with highs mainly in the 50s but parts of the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s
* Cool with the risk for some unsettled weather early next week and perhaps a stronger coastal storm by the mid-late next week
Details...
Saturday and Sunday...
Large high pressure builds eastward across Quebec and noses southward into our region this weekend. This will bring us dry but cool weather with slightly below normal temps for this time of year. Low temps will mainly be in the upper 20s and 30s. High temps will generally be in the 50s...but portions of the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s. It does look like Sunday will be the slightly cooler day.
Next Week...
Forecast confidence drops significantly next week...but it does appear the risk for some unsettled weather is possible including the potential for a stronger coastal storm by mid to late next week.
Initially...High pressure shifting further east across Quebec will result in NE low level flow by Mon/Tue. This may allow some lower clouds along with a few showers to impact the region with the best chance along the coast. More importantly...we will be watching vigorous northern stream energy that will be dropping southward potentially leading to the formation of a coastal storm by mid-late next week. There is quite the spread in the individual ensembles in terms of not only the track but intensity as well.
And that is no surprise given this is still 6-7 days out...which is an eternity in the model world. Some of the models indicate the potential for quite a strong low pressure system coupled with a 1035 mb high across eastern Canada. If this were to occur...a period of a windswept soaking rain would be possible. The one positive thing is that astronomical tides are rather low...so it would take a lot to get much more than minor coastal flooding. But again...we need several more days to sort this all out and have a better idea on potential outcomes..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update...
Today...High confidence.
VFR despite a scattered to broken deck of strato-cu at times...but nothing more than a brief spot shower or two. SW winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots at times later this morning and afternoon...strongest of which will be near the south coast.
Tonight and Friday...High confidence.
VFR conditions continue despite some strato-cu at times especially during the day Fri. Again though nothing more than a few brief spot showers are expected. WSW winds of 5-10 knots tonight will tend to shift to more of a W or even WNW direction on Friday at the same speeds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Friday...High confidence.
A modest southwest LLJ coupled with decent mixing today will generate another round of SW wind gusts of 25 knots. The long SW fetch will also generate 3 to 6 foot seas...highest of which will be across our southern waters. Opted to hoist small craft headlines for all our waters except for Boston Harbor today...but even there it may briefly touch criteria.
The winds turn more to a westerly direction tonight and Friday and also diminish behind the shortwave. Most of the small craft headlines will drop off by tonight...except for our southern waters where marginal seas will linger. By Friday...expect all winds/seas to be below small craft advisory thresholds and no marine headlines will be needed.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.