Updated: 150 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025
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High pressure overhead tonight shifts east of the region on Friday. A weak wave of low pressure passes well to our south Friday night into early Saturday...perhaps bringing a few showers mainly for areas near the south coast. Otherwise...dry/seasonable weather is on tap for the weekend into Monday. Low pressure approaching from the west will likely bring a period of rain later Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Dry weather should return in time for Thanksgiving.
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THROUGH TONIGHT
Key Messages...
* Dry but chilly again tonight with lows mainly in the 20s
Details...
Tonight...
A ridge of high pressure over southern New England will result in another dry & chilly night with calm/light winds. This should allow for excellent radiational cooling conditions with low temps bottoming out mainly in the 20s. A few of the normally coldest spots will probably bottom out near 20! Meanwhile...the urban heat island of Boston will be the mild spot with lows only dropping into the lower to middle 30s.
As the prior forecast mentioned...slightly higher dewpoints across eastern MA may allow some fog patches in the typically prone low-lying locations overnight. There is a low risk that this could lead to patches of black ice with the best chance towards the Cape/Islands.
Not too confident on this happening because true warm advection at the surface does not occur until after 12z and the airmass is fairly dry. Certainly something to keep a close eye on overnight..
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
Key Messages...
* Partly sunny Fri...Highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s
* A few showers possible later Fri night, mainly near the south coast
Details...
Friday...
The ridge of high pressure shifts to our southeast Friday. A mixture of clouds and sun expected with the clouds more favorable later in the day. The departing high will allow a return southwest flow of air to develop at the surface. Mid-level temps warm a bit too...so thinking highs will be a few degrees milder than today. High temps should mainly be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s except lower-middle 40s in the higher terrain.
Friday night...
A weak wave of low pressure will be moving east across the mid- Atlantic states Friday night.
Strong 500 mb low across Quebec will tend to suppress this system to our south. In fact...the latest model guidance continues to trend further south with the main rain shield. GFS still the outlier bringing a period of widespread rain to most areas later Friday night/early Saturday...but the rest of the guidance keeps most of the rain near the south coast. Still time to sort out...but thinking much of our region may see little or no rainfall. Low temps should bottom out in the 30s to the lower 40s and we may see some fog patches..
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Key Messages:
* Chance for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning across the South Coast.
* Mostly dry and sunny through the weekend, but returning to unsettled conditions by mid-week.
Continue to expect Friday to remain dry during the daytime hours with a cold front pushing through New England Friday night into Saturday. Latest guidance is trending towards a later arrival as well as keeping showers south of the Mass Pike and along the South Coast. NBM probs for greater than 0.25"/24 hours remains greatest along and south of the I-95 corridor, and probs of 0.5"/24 hours the greatest (only 25-30 percent) over the Islands. GFS continues to remain the most robust of the models, but thinking it may be an outlier at this point.
Mostly dry and sunny for the remainder of the weekend, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s (except mid to upper 30s for higher terrain areas).
Next chance for rain showers comes mid-week as another low pressure system passes through the James Bay and a high pressure moves offshore.
Still quite a bit of uncertainty given how far out we are, but something we will continue to watch as Thanksgiving approaches..
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon through tonight...High confidence.
VFR conditions persist...but we can not rule out some marginal brief MVFR ceilings flirting with eastern MA at times. We may also see localized patchy ground fog very late tonight in the typically prone low-lying locations particularly in eastern MA. Light/calm winds.
Friday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR with perhaps some brief MVFR ceilings flirting with some spots later in the day. SW winds 5-12 knots.
Friday night...Moderate confidence.
VFR conditions dominate early Friday evening...but expect some MVFR- IFR cigs/vsbys to become more dominate as the night wears along. A few showers possible...mainly late and near the south coast. Light SW winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday through Monday: VFR.
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.
High pressure across the waters tonight will shift to their east Fri into Fri night. A weak wave of low pressure then will pass to our south Fri night. This all will result in a continued weak pressure gradient keeping winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through Friday night.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.