Updated: 416 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025
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Moderate to heavy rain today as a strong and slow-moving low- pressure system moves through the region. Rain gradually diminish tonight into Saturday. High pressure returns for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. High pressure however is forecast to move offshore towards middle of next week with another frontal system approaching.
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UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
Key Points
* Heavy rain will bring a renewed river flooding threat to the CT River.
* Minor Street and nuisance flooding may align with the afternoon/evening commute
Vigorous shortwave trough and strengthening surface low move through the region today, bringing another soaking rain and a renewed threat to river and stream flooding. Rain moves in from west to east today, becoming moderate to heavy at times this afternoon and evening. A warm front stalls across northern MA this afternoon, which, combined with NE winds, causing upslope flow, will bring the heaviest precip totals near the east slopes of the high terrain. The latest 00z HREF LPMM shows 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rain across both the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Worcester hills.
Outside, the terrain-influenced areas will likely see 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Given the increase in QPF across the Worcester hills, the Flood watch was expanded east into Worcester and Windham counties. The main flooding threat remains river and stream flooding with several points along the CT river valley going into minor, possibly even moderate flood. Hi-res guidance shows several hours of rain rates between 0.1 to 0.3 inches per hour. With marginal instability building today, weak embedded convection may boost rain rates to 0.5 in/hr. These heavy rain rates are expected to coincide with the evening commute on Friday afternoon, which could make travel hours with minor street flooding possible and reduced visibility. With the rain around all day, high temperatures range from the low 50s in northern MA to the low 60s in southern MA, RI, and CT..
6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY
The warm front finally moves north as the surface low pressure occludes over SNE. Precip ends from west to east tonight, with much of the rain offshore by midnight, with only lingering showers into Saturday morning. Low clouds, fog, and drizzle continue across eastern MA as winds shift from ENE to ESE overnight. Overnight lows stay in the mid-40s to low 50s..
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Key Points:
* Lingering showers Sat morning, then drying out and blustery in the afternoon
* Dry and seasonable Sunday then warming trend next week with above normal temps
* Risk of showers increases Wed and Thu along with increasing humidity
Saturday...
Mid level low will be moving across SNE in the morning with dry slot moving up from the south. However, wrap around moisture in the comma head will likely bring some showers to the interior and northern MA in the morning. Then it should dry out in the afternoon as the low moves into the Gulf of Maine with decreasing moisture. However, strengthening gradient will lead to gusty W-NW winds in the afternoon with forecast soundings supporting gusts to 25-35 mph.
Below normal temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Sunday through Thursday...
Mainly dry and seasonable Sunday with diminishing wind as high pres builds in from the NW. Then a warming trend next week as the high moves south of New Eng and upper level ridging moves into the region with warming temps aloft. Warmest day Tue with temps possibly reaching lower 80s interior. The ridge slides offshore by Wed as slow moving upper trough approaches from the west. Higher PWAT plume ahead of the trough surges northward with 1.5" PWATs moving back into New Eng so showers expected Wed and probably Thu as well as the upper trough moves overhead. Temps remaining above normal with increasing humidity as dewpoints potentially rise into the 60s Wed and/or Thu..
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
MVFR/IFR conditions. Convective showers continue to move NE across central and east MA through 04z. Patchy areas of BR/FG across the interior.
Friday: High Confidence
IFR/LIFR conditions. Rain continues to spread from west to east Friday morning-early afternoon. East winds at 10-15 knots. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times
Friday Night: High Confidence.
Rain tapers off from west to east, but with continued NE flow, IFR/LIFR conditions expected to continue.
Saturday: High Confidence.
MVFR with lingering showers in the morning, turning VFR with westerly winds in the afternoon at 15-25 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
IFR/LIFR tonight. Should see some improvement to IFR/low end MVFR today. Rain moves in at 16z this afternoon, and could be moderate to heavy at times. IFR/LIFR continues Friday night. Rain should end taper off Saturday morning.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
MVFR/IFR today. Rain moves in after 12z and will be moderate to heavy at times. Rain tapers off tonight after 06z with CIGS improving to MVFR
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday: VFR.
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Friday Night: Medium Confidence.
Low pressure system will bring rain showers through Friday night and increasing southeasterly winds to the waters through Friday night. Seas begin to increase to 3-6 feet in the open ocean waters starting late tonight and continuing through Friday night. Winds remain less than 25 kt. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.