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Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

High pressure from the Midwest will build over Southern New England for most of this week, bringing dry weather. Temperatures will be cold Tuesday, then moderate the rest of this week. There is the potential for a coastal storm this weekend, but uncertainty exists in regards to timing and precipitation types.

NEAR TERM

UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING

925 PM update...

High pres building in from the west tonight. Clear skies and diminishing wind becoming calm in the interior valleys will result in excellent radiational cooling. Current forecast mins look reasonable, mostly in the single numbers away from the coast with some subzero readings in the CT valley in northern MA. Lows in the teens along the coast and Cape/Islands.

Previous Discussion...

Pressure gradient leading Midwest high pressure will be diminishing over Southern New England tonight, allowing winds to diminish. The high will bring sufficient subsidence for clear skies. Upper flow remains out of the northwest. Dew points are currently in the single numbers and below zero. With clear skies and winds diminishing there should be room for radiational cooling to develop, especially in Western and Central MA/Northern CT. This points to min temps in the single numbers, and possibly a little below zero in spots.

SHORT TERM

6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY

High pressure remains in control much of the period. Expect fair weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temps aloft in a shallow mixing regime support max sfc temps in the 20s, possibly a few low 30s, during the day. Nighttime temps should reach the single numbers and teens.

Upper flow shows a shortwave and associated cold pool sweeping across New England Tuesday evening. Much of this is concentrated over Northern New England, but some of the cold pool and moisture reaches south of the NH border. The best chance of clouds will be along the MA east coast and over the eastern coastal waters as the cold air moves over the 4-6C water.

LONG TERM

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

Highlights...

* Moderating temperatures begin Wed, with above normal values Thu/Fri, along with continued dry weather

* Potential coastal storm this weekend would favor more rain than snow along the I-95 corridor, but uncertain across the interior

Details...

Wednesday through Friday...

Large high pressure will remain in control during this time. This will maintain dry/tranquil weather, but temperatures will moderate as some upper level ridging builds into southern New England. Weak gradient may allow for sea breeze development, so could be some cooling along the very immediate coast during the afternoon. Regardless, given light winds and above normal temperatures, it will feel rather comfortable outside during Thu and Fri afternoons by late January standards.

This Weekend...

The latest longer range guidance continues to depict potential for a coastal storm sometime Saturday night into Sunday night, possibly evening into Monday morning. Considerable uncertainty remains on the exact track and timing of the various components of this system, which is not all that unusual this time of year. There is rather high confidence we will see a period of measurable precipitation. Confidence is much lower on the timing and precipitation type details.

Took a consensus/ensemble mean approach to smooth over the less predictable details. That pattern suggest more of a rain/snow mix across southern New England, instead of a big snowstorm for everyone. Snow more favored across the interior, especially at night. Both options remain possibilities, however. There is some blocking expected to our north, so this could be a slow- moving coastal storm. It may be Monday morning before this low pressure moves offshore.

AVIATION

05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

VFR. But patchy ocean effect MVFR cigs and a few -SHSN may develop today after 12z over the outer Cape.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN.

MARINE

Tonight...Northwest wind diminishes early tonight with winds 10-15 kt much of the night with potential gusts to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 feet on the outer waters should subside below 5 feet by morning. Small Craft Advisory have been ended near the shore but linger on the outer waters a while longer.

Tuesday...Northwest winds 10 kt or less. Seas less than 5 feet.

Tuesday night...Possibly a few snow showers over the waters early at night. Continued northwest winds 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ250-254-255.

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