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Area Forecast Discussion


High pressure centered over eastern New England will move off the coast, allowing temperatures to moderate today, but they will still be below normal for the middle of November. Even milder weather is forecast for Friday, but then another strong cold front will deliver unseasonably cold temperatures Friday night through Saturday night. An ocean storm may impact the region Sunday night into Monday with another storm possibly affecting the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.



330 AM update...

As of 330 AM, ocean effect cloudiness continued to flirt with the eastern MA coast from Cape Ann to Cape Cod overnight, but the westward progress has ended and models show it should be moving back eastward shortly. Have removed any risk of flurries. Otherwise, high and middle level cloudiness was moving across the region, but it was rather thin. A band of thicker mid clouds was moving rapidly eastward across western and central New York state.

High pressure, which was centered over eastern New England early this morning, will shift eastward and allow a southerly flow of moist air to return to the region today. Aided by a southwesterly low level jet, low clouds are expected to rapidly develop late this morning and overspread much of the area this afternoon. Expecting drizzle and light rain showers to develop, especially across RI and southeast MA. Depending on timing, there could be some snowflakes mixed in with the rain in the Merrimack Valley of northeast MA. This is uncertain, since, as the previous shift mentioned, there is a lot of dry air in what would be the dendritic growth zone. Anyway, not much precipitation is expected overall. Highs will be in the mid and upper 30s, except 40s in RI and southeast MA.



The warm advection pattern continues into tonight, along with a very weak low pressure trough along the eastern MA coast and a very subtle upper level wave. There is a good chance of showers, especially from southern RI to Cape Cod and the Islands tonight. The precipitation should be mainly in the form of rain, with only less than 0.10 inches expected. However, temperatures will be dropping to the lower 30s just inland away from the coast, so if precipitation extends that far west, there could be a brief period of snow before ending there. Skies are forecast to clear across western and central MA and northern CT after midnight. Not nearly as chilly, with lows 25 to 30 interior and mid 30s to lower 40s Cape Cod and the Islands.

Friday should be a very nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures moderating to 45 to 50 with lower 50s in RI and southeast MA. Southwest winds out ahead of the next strong cold front could gust up to around 20 mph in the afternoon.




* Turning much colder again Fri night into Sat night * An ocean storm may impact SNE Sun night/Mon with rain and coastal wind along with pockets of ice across the interior

Friday night into Saturday...

Arctic front drops south from northern New Eng reaching the south coast by late Fri night. Moisture is limited so expect a dry frontal passage with mostly sunny skies Saturday as strong high pres builds to the north. Much colder temps and gusty N winds late Fri night into Sat with highs mostly low to mid 30s on Sat. Wind gusts 30-40 mph along the coast late Fri night and Sat morning with wind chills bottoming out in the single numbers and teens. Winds diminish Sat afternoon.


High pres remains across northern New Eng Sun with ocean storm well to the south. Expect dry conditions to persist although clouds will be increasing from the south along with gusty E/NE winds developing by late in the day over the Cape/Islands. Temps moderate but still below normal ranging from upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday night into Monday...

Ocean storm tracks south of the benchmark but uncertainty with how far north and west deep moisture and precip will get with continued large spread among the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Highest confidence in a period of rain and gusty NE winds will be across eastern New Eng with lower confidence further in the interior. If precip makes it into the interior, there could be pockets of ice Sun night/early Mon as low level cold air hangs tough, but confidence is low.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

While southern stream system lifts NE, more energy diving south from central Canada and the upper midwest will amplify mid level trough across the eastern CONUS. Complex pattern and models struggling with resolving interaction of multiple pieces of energy and possible outcomes. A second coastal storm may develop and impact SNE but confidence in timing, track and intensity is quite low at this time range.



Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

0830Z update...

Short Term /through Friday/...

Until daybreak...High confidence. VFR. Only exception is isolated patch of 3000 ft ceilings possible on outermost Cape Cod.

Today...Moderate confidence. VFR early. Then MVFR ceilings developing with areas of drizzle and light rain showers in the afternoon, possibly mixed with a touch of snow in central and northeast MA. Local IFR possible late in the day.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. MVFR, with local IFR southeast MA and southern RI with scattered rain showers, possibly mixed with a little snow if rain is farther west. Conditions improving to VFR across western and central MA and northern CT late.

Friday...High confidence. VFR, except MVFR possible on outer Cape Cod and Nantucket right around sunrise.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA, slight chance PL.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA.


Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters this morning and moves farther offshore during the day. Light wind will become south to southwest and gust to around 20 kt late this afternoon.

Scattered showers and patchy fog could reduce visibility to near 3 nm at times late this afternoon and tonight.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the eastern MA outer waters and the waters south of Nantucket beginning this evening and continuing through Friday. Seas will build to 5 ft in those areas tonight. They could subside for a time late tonight but then should build back to 5 to 6 ft by late Fri afternoon. Southwest to west winds should gust to 20 to 25 kt Fri afternoon.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain.


Record Low Max Temps for Wednesday Nov 13 (all were broken)

Boston 33 - 36/1874 Hartford 32 - 33/1911 Providence 32 - 37/1911 Worcester 26 - 32/1962,2013

Record Low Min Temps for Thursday Nov 14

Boston 16/1905 Hartford 15/1986 Providence 16/1905 Worcester 10/1986


CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.

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